Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 12:30 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast60 or more days 50.1%Leader of 17 outcomes
Forecasters
19
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+27.1 pts
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleFeb 16, 26, 5:24 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How many SpaceX Starship launches will reach space in 2026?
KalshiHow many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
PolymarketHow many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
LimitlessHow many Starship launches will occur in 2026?
Manifold MarketsHow many Starship launches will reach space in 2026?
KalshiWill SpaceX's Starship have 40 successful launches before 2027?
Manifold MarketsRules
Shortest gap between any two launches - does NOT need to be same ship or booster.
- Short gaps in 2025 included January 16th to March 6th flights 7 and 8 with 49 day gap August 27th to October 14th flights 10 and 11 with 48 day gap
- If version 3 works well, manufacturing might speed up considerably and there might be reuse and even refuelling attempts but it isn't clear how fast pad 2 can be turned around if the ships and boosters are available.
- If it doesn't work well like version 2, then long delays are possible.