Current community forecast
No 99%
Forecasters
33
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingDec 30, 23, 3:59 AM UTCJan 3, 27, 6:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
PolymarketHow many SpaceX Starship launches will reach space in 2026?
KalshiStortest gap between two SpaceX Starship launches in 2026
Manifold MarketsHow many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
LimitlessWill SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there be crewed Starship flights to Mars in 4 years if there are successful launches 2 years from now?
Manifold MarketsRules
See also: @/Alexf3a5/will-spacexs-starship-superheavy-la
- I will use the same criteria as that market: has a payload been delivered in a way that a customer would be happy with?
- Update 2025-07-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Based on the linked market's criteria, the creator has provided the following clarifications:
- For test flights with no payload, a launch is successful if it reaches its target trajectory or destination, disregarding later failures related to vehicle recovery.
- Under these terms, Starship Flight 3 is considered a success.
- The current count of successful launches is 4.