Current implied probability
5-6 50%Leader of 8 outcomes
5-6 50%Market quality
22 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Liquidity
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Liquidity unknownMarket data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Jun 26, 26, 9:45 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How many Starship launches will reach space in 2026?
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KalshiWhen will SpaceX's Starship launch from Florida?
KalshiRules
5-6 · 16 · 13-14 · 15-16 · 11-12.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level.
- Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary.
- However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
