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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Space
  3. How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?

How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?

0.3% (24h)SpaceYearly6mo
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
<5
<5 53%-4.0%
Leader of 8 outcomes
Market quality

64 / 100

Medium quality
24h Volume

$316

Liquidity

$41.7K

High liquidity
Bid / Ask

2.2% / 7.1%

Spread

222.7%

Wide spread
7d Change

-0.3%

Market data

Updated 6 minutes ago

Dec 12, 25, 12:45 AMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

<553%

KalshiAlso available on Kalshi

How many SpaceX Starship launches will reach space in 2026?

How many SpaceX Starship launches will reach space in 2026?

5.0%6mo
2
2
-5.0%2%
8
8
-4.0%1%
7
7
2%

+7 more outcomes

28 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$55.3
24h Vol$0.5
KalshiKALSHI

Rules

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level.
  • Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
  • The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary.
  • However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.

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Rules

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level.
  • Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
  • The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary.
  • However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.