Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 90.1%
Forecasters
28
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleMar 1, 26, 2:57 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the first successful Artemis crewed lunar landing be done using a Blue Origin lander?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket launch?
KalshiBlue Origin worth more than SpaceX by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsBlue Origin New Glenn launch in 2026?
PolymarketAnother Blue Origin rocket explodes by Oct 31?
PolymarketWill Blue Origin land an uncrewed Blue Moon MK1 lander on the moon before SpaceX lands an uncrewed Starship?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- Resolution will require the vehicle to reach a nominal orbit all other mission goals will not apply to the resolution criteria.
- Starship has never reached orbit; instead, SpaceX has followed a suborbital trajectory for the 10 integrated flight tests conducted to date.
- Blue Moon Pathfinder Mission 1 is a planned robotic lunar landing mission to be operated by Blue Origin, set to launch no earlier than early 2026.
- The Blue Moon lander is to be capable of conducting crewed lunar landings lasting up to 30 days, pending an uncrewed demonstration flight scheduled for 2027.
- Considerations
Open markets
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+3.0pt86.1%
- Yes-3.0pt13.9%
- Total Vol
- $14.5M
- 24h Vol
- $253.8K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,-1.0pt86%
- November 30,-0.5pt85%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jul 1, 2027-11.0pt37%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-19.0pt35%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-20.0pt35%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+2.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+1.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T-0.1pt19.8%
- $1.75T–$2.0T18.9%
- $1.5T–$1.75T17.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- How many states will adopt data center moratoriums in 2026?
- Conference to Win the National Championship
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act?
- SpaceX' Market Cap end of October 2026?
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Space Exploration Technologies' Market Cap end of September 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Starship reach Earth orbit before the Blue Origin Lunar Lander??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 90% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Starship reach Earth orbit before the Blue Origin Lunar Lander? resolve?
- Will Starship reach Earth orbit before the Blue Origin Lunar Lander? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will Starship reach Earth orbit before the Blue Origin Lunar Lander? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria