PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 84%-1.0pt
Market quality
38 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$325.2
Low liquidityBid / Ask
12.0% / 20.0%
Spread
8.0 pt
Wide spreadComments
4
7d Change
+4.5 pts
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Jun 1, 26, 5:14 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Starship reach Earth orbit before the Blue Origin Lunar Lander?
Manifold MarketsBlue Origin worth more than SpaceX by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsAnother Blue Origin rocket explodes by Oct 31?
PolymarketWill New Glenn (Blue Origin) reach Mars before Starship/Falcon (SpaceX)
Manifold MarketsWill Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?
KalshiWhen will Blue Origin launch New Shepard
KalshiRules
If any Blue Origin New Glenn rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
- The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
- Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome.
- Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.
Open markets
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-1.8pt9%
- Google2%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $121.9K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Total Vol
- $53.1K
- 24h Vol
- $53.1K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt59.4%
- SpaceX-4.0pt38.5%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-16.0pt19%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt67%
- June 30, 2027-0.5pt53%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Blue Origin New Glenn launch in 2026??
- Polymarket prices No at 84% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Blue Origin New Glenn launch in 2026? resolve?
- Blue Origin New Glenn launch in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Blue Origin New Glenn launch in 2026? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: If any Blue Origin New Glenn rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”.