KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Above 12 30%-9.0ptMarket line of 12 lines
Above 12 30%-9.0ptMarket quality
50 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$279.9
Open interest
$5.6K
Medium open interestSpread
5.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Oct 1, 26, 4:00 PM UTCNov 2, 26, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsHow many launches will SpaceX have in October?
Manifold MarketsHow many launches will SpaceX have in October?
KalshiRules
If all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have Above 12 launches in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Source Agency records the date of liftoff in a different time zone, the Exchange will convert to Eastern Time for purposes of allocating the launch to the time period. Please see full rules for more details.
Rules for each outcome
- Above 9
- If all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have Above 9 launches in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 10
- If all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have Above 10 launches in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 11
- If all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have Above 11 launches in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 12
- If all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have Above 12 launches in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 13
- If all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have Above 13 launches in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 14
- If all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have Above 14 launches in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 15
- If all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have Above 15 launches in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 16
- If all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have Above 16 launches in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 17
- If all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have Above 17 launches in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 18
- If all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have Above 18 launches in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 19
- If all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have Above 19 launches in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 20
- If all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have Above 20 launches in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.