Current community forecast
>= 5 78.3%Leader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
2
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 34 minutes ago
Jun 16, 26, 8:55 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How many crewed orbital space launches will there be in 2027?
Manifold MarketsHow many orbital launches will there be in 2027?
Manifold MarketsTotal space launches in September
KalshiWill SpaceX conduct at least half of all successful orbital launches in 2027?
Manifold MarketsHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
KalshiHow many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?
KalshiRules
There were 8 in 2025, and 3 so far in 2026.
Open markets
Space
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-1.8pt9%
- Google2%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $121.9K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Total Vol
- $53.1K
- 24h Vol
- $53.1K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt59.4%
- SpaceX-4.0pt38.5%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-16.0pt19%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt67%
- June 30, 2027-0.5pt53%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for How many crewed orbital space launches will there be in 2028??
- Manifold Markets prices >= 5 at 78% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does How many crewed orbital space launches will there be in 2028? resolve?
- How many crewed orbital space launches will there be in 2028? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2028.
- How is How many crewed orbital space launches will there be in 2028? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: There were 8 in 2025, and 3 so far in 2026.