Current community forecast
Yes 52.2%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleFeb 4, 26, 5:05 PM UTCJan 1, 31, 4:55 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Over the last 5-6 years, there has been a remarkable increase in the number of space launches, highly reminiscent of a typical exponential curve:
- [image]On average since 2020, the yearly growth rate was at about 25%, with some variance (from ~18.5% to ~32% YoY), which resulted in more than 3x increase from 104 in 2020 to 317 in 2025
- I'm interested to see whether or not the same trend will continue for the next 5 years
- This will resolve yes if in year 2030 the number of successful (not total!) orbital space launches will triple compared to 2025, i.e. will be at least 951.
- The source will be https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_spaceflight, but if this page will stop reporting accurate data, i will find alternative sources on launch statistics
- (as a small bonus: i will tip 250 mana to the person who will suggest the best name for this "law", purely subjective of course)
