Current community forecast
At least 250 94.1%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
10
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleJun 17, 26, 6:07 AM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will SpaceX conduct at least half of all successful orbital launches in 2027?
Manifold MarketsHow many crewed orbital space launches will there be in 2027?
Manifold MarketsHow many crewed orbital space launches will there be in 2028?
Manifold MarketsHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
KalshiHow many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?
KalshiHow many SpaceX launches in September 2026?
PolymarketRules
There were 317 in 2025, and 135 so far in 2026.
Open markets
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-1.8pt9%
- Google2%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $121.9K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Total Vol
- $53.1K
- 24h Vol
- $53.1K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt59.4%
- SpaceX-4.0pt38.5%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-16.0pt19%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt67%
- June 30, 2027-0.5pt53%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for How many orbital launches will there be in 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices At least 250 at 94% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does How many orbital launches will there be in 2027? resolve?
- How many orbital launches will there be in 2027? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
- How is How many orbital launches will there be in 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: There were 317 in 2025, and 135 so far in 2026.