Current community forecast
10 30.5%+2.9ptLeader of 9 outcomes
Forecasters
7
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+7.4 pts
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Sep 22, 26, 10:40 AM UTCOct 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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MyriadRules
Resolves to number of successful launches of all variants of orbital launch vehicles on Nextspaceflight's Manifest Page. https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/?q=&f=agency_1&tab=
- for October 2026, UTC time.
- If that page is demonstrably wrong or out of date, then I will either wait for update or a correct source will be decided upon and used as a replacement.
- A launch is considered successful if it is outlined in green on the linked manifest page.
- Launches outlined with red (failure) or orange (partial failure) will not count as successful.
- (Starship is considered an orbital launch vehicle, regardless of true orbit not being demonstrated.