Current community forecast
Yes 86%
Forecasters
82
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleNov 24, 23, 12:08 AM UTCDec 28, 27, 12:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket launch?
KalshiBlue Origin New Glenn launch in 2026?
PolymarketWill Falcon 9/FH Launch More Mass to Orbit than Starship in 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Falcon launch more times in 2027 than 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?
KalshiWill Blue Origin's first Blue Moon HLS mission successfully land on the moon?
Manifold MarketsRules
Based on this article:
- https://www.theregister.com/AMP/2023/11/23/blue_origin_glenn_rocket_mars/
- For this market I’m defining “Reaching Mars” as being captured into an orbit around Mars.
- The orbit has to be stable
- OR if it’s unstable it has to be descending towards the Martian surface
- If it’s unstable and gets slingshot out into interplanetary space then it will not count.
Open markets
TechKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above+68.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-23.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-9.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $682.4K
- 24h Vol
- $661.4K
KALSHIGuyana Amazon Warriors vs Antigua And Barbuda Falcons
- Guyana Amazon Warriors-3.0pt60.4%
- Antigua And Barbuda Falcons+3.0pt39.6%
- Total Vol
- $654.7K
- 24h Vol
- $626.1K
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+43.0pt99%
- Houston+70.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+17.0pt99%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $504.6K
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+53.0pt95.2%
- 79° or below-2.0pt1%
- 82° to 83°-45.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $69,000 or above99%
- $69,500 or above98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3M
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+7.0pt34.3%
- 160-179+2.0pt23.8%
- 200-219-1.0pt19.1%
+23 more outcomes
- Elon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- BTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
- Highest temperature in Chicago on Sep 8, 2026?
- Next James Bond actor?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will New Glenn (Blue Origin) reach Mars before Starship/Falcon (SpaceX)?
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 86% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will New Glenn (Blue Origin) reach Mars before Starship/Falcon (SpaceX) resolve?
- Will New Glenn (Blue Origin) reach Mars before Starship/Falcon (SpaceX) is scheduled to resolve on December 28, 2027.
- How is Will New Glenn (Blue Origin) reach Mars before Starship/Falcon (SpaceX) settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Based on this article: