Current community forecast
Yes 86%
Forecasters
82
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleNov 24, 23, 12:08 AM UTCDec 28, 27, 12:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Based on this article:
- https://www.theregister.com/AMP/2023/11/23/blue_origin_glenn_rocket_mars/
- For this market I’m defining “Reaching Mars” as being captured into an orbit around Mars.
- The orbit has to be stable
- OR if it’s unstable it has to be descending towards the Martian surface
- If it’s unstable and gets slingshot out into interplanetary space then it will not count.