Current community forecast
Yes 77.4%
Forecasters
36
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleFeb 12, 25, 11:33 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Starship land on the moon before Blue Origin does?
Manifold MarketsWho will land humans on the Moon first: SpaceX or Blue Origin?
Manifold MarketsWill Blue Origin's first Blue Moon HLS mission successfully land on the moon?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket launch?
KalshiBlue Origin New Glenn launch in 2026?
PolymarketAnother Blue Origin rocket explodes by Oct 31?
PolymarketRules
Background Blue Origin plans to land its Blue Moon MK1 cargo lander on the moon in 2025, with a timeline of 12-16 months from early 2024.
- The mission will use Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket.
- The Blue Moon MK1 is designed to deliver up to 3 metric tons of cargo.
- SpaceX is scheduled to conduct an uncrewed Starship demo landing on the moon in 2025 as part of NASA's timeline.
- SpaceX's mission is more complex, requiring multiple tanker refuelings in orbit for its Starship HLS.
- Resolution Criteria This market resolves YES if Blue Origin successfully lands an uncrewed Blue Moon MK1 lander on the lunar surface before SpaceX successfully lands an uncrewed Starship on the lunar surface.
Prediction Source Comparison
Open markets
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $74,750 or above99%
- $73,750 or above99%
- $74,500 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3M
- 24h Vol
- $1.3M
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 160-179+26.0pt60.4%
- 180-199-7.5pt32.7%
- 200-219-9.9pt4%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $69,000 or above99%
- $69,500 or above98%
- $68,500 or above98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $371.9K
KALSHIWhen will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Before April 2027+7.0pt68.9%
- Before March 2027-3.0pt19.3%
- Before February 2027+2.0pt8.4%
+2 more outcomes
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 10, 2026?
- New York City+68.0pt99%
- Boston+46.0pt99%
- Oklahoma City+11.0pt99%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $297.1K
LIMITLESSAmazon (AMZN) Up or Down - Daily
- No55%
- Yes45%
- Total Vol
- $254K
- 24h Vol
- $250.1K
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
- SpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down - Daily
- Meta (META) Up or Down - Daily
- Nasdaq-100 price on Sep 10, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 10, 2026?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 10, 2026?
- ETH price on Sep 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Highest temperature in New York City on Sep 10, 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Blue Origin land an uncrewed Blue Moon MK1 lander on the moon before SpaceX lands an uncrewed Starship??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 77% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Will Blue Origin land an uncrewed Blue Moon MK1 lander on the moon before SpaceX lands an uncrewed Starship? resolve?
- Will Blue Origin land an uncrewed Blue Moon MK1 lander on the moon before SpaceX lands an uncrewed Starship? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.
- How is Will Blue Origin land an uncrewed Blue Moon MK1 lander on the moon before SpaceX lands an uncrewed Starship? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Background Blue Origin plans to land its Blue Moon MK1 cargo lander on the moon in 2025, with a timeline of 12-16 months from early 2024.
- Where else is Will Blue Origin land an uncrewed Blue Moon MK1 lander on the moon before SpaceX lands an uncrewed Starship? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Kalshi.