Will Blue Origin land an uncrewed Blue Moon MK1 lander on the moon before SpaceX lands an uncrewed Starship?
Tech5moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jun 22, 2026, 5:24 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current community forecastYes 62.8%
Forecasters
36
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 35 days ago
StaleFeb 12, 25, 11:33 PMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes63%
Compare venues· Yes
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBest overall88% match · verified | Medium | 62% | — | $159 | $33.5K | 25 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold MarketsThis page | — | 63% | — | — | — | 35 days ago |
Also available on Kalshi
Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?
1.0 pts3y
-1.0pt62%
38%
68 • Medium qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$89.9K
24h Vol$159
KALSHIRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.