Current community forecast
No 71.4%
Forecasters
56
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
May 19, 23, 6:02 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 12:59 AM UTC
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?
KalshiWill Blue Origin land an uncrewed Blue Moon MK1 lander on the moon before SpaceX lands an uncrewed Starship?
Manifold MarketsWill Blue Origin's first Blue Moon HLS mission successfully land on the moon?
Manifold MarketsWill the first Starship to land on Mars carry useful payload?
Manifold MarketsAnother Blue Origin rocket explodes by Oct 31?
PolymarketWill the Department of Government Efficiency recommend cancelling Blue Origin's Human Landing System before 2029?
Manifold MarketsRules
Both SpaceX and Blue Origin are planning to send demo landers to the moon, before their crewed missions for Artemis III and V respectively.
- Even before the official uncrewed demo landing Blue Origin is planning to send two pathfinder landers to the moon, in 2024 and 2025.
- These BO landers might not actually look like the Artemis mission lander.
- They will likely be the small "Blue Moon" landers, not the lander that got awarded the Appendix P contract.
- Nevertheless, these landers count for the purposes of this market.
- Starship's uncrewed demo landing is scheduled for 2024, according to NASA's timeline.