Current community forecast
No 95%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleNov 13, 24, 3:34 AM UTCDec 31, 28, 3:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Blue Origin's first Blue Moon HLS mission successfully land on the moon?
Manifold MarketsWill the first successful Artemis crewed lunar landing be done using a Blue Origin lander?
Manifold MarketsWill the first human landing on Mars take place before the next human landing on the Moon?
Manifold MarketsWill Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?
KalshiWhen will Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket launch?
KalshiBlue Origin New Glenn launch in 2026?
PolymarketRules
There needs to be an official statement attributable to DOGE.
- Elon Musk does not need to be associated with that statement.
- The Blue Origin HLS does not need to be cancelled, only that DOGE recommends it.
- If Blue Origin HLS is cancelled without any statement from DOGE this would resolve NO.
- If DOGE ceases to exist this can resolve NO early.
- I will not bet