Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
SpaceX 56%Leader of 3 outcomes
SpaceX 56%Forecasters
10
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleApr 23, 26, 10:54 AM UTCDec 30, 32, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?
KalshiWill a state which is not the US contract SpaceX or Blue Origin to conduct a lunar landing before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill Blue Origin land an uncrewed Blue Moon MK1 lander on the moon before SpaceX lands an uncrewed Starship?
Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX or Blue Origin conduct or be contracted to conduct a private lunar landing before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWhich crewed vehicle will be next to land humans on the Moon?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket launch?
KalshiRules
As of April 2026, SpaceX and the named outcome are NASA's two contracted Human Landing System (HLS) providers for the Artemis program.
- SpaceX holds the Artemis III contract (Starship HLS, mid-2027 target, now reconfigured as an Earth-orbit test).
- the named outcome holds the Artemis V contract (Blue Moon Mark 2, ~2030).
- In October 2025, then-acting NASA Administrator Sean Duffy reopened the Artemis III landing contract amid Starship HLS delays, and the named outcome is reportedly developing a "Mark 1.5" crewed variant based on Blue Moon Mark 1 that could potentially fly sooner.
- This market resolves based on which company's lander first carries at least one human to a soft landing on the lunar surface, whether on a NASA Artemis mission, a commercial mission, or any other flight.
- Resolution criteria:
