Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
SpaceX 56%Leader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
10
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleApr 23, 26, 10:54 AM UTCDec 30, 32, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?
KalshiWill Blue Origin land an uncrewed Blue Moon MK1 lander on the moon before SpaceX lands an uncrewed Starship?
Manifold MarketsWhich crewed vehicle will be next to land humans on the Moon?
Manifold MarketsWill China land humans on the Moon before the US returns astronauts to the lunar surface?
Manifold MarketsBlue Origin New Glenn launch in 2026?
PolymarketAnother Blue Origin rocket explodes by Oct 31?
PolymarketRules
As of April 2026, SpaceX and the named outcome are NASA's two contracted Human Landing System (HLS) providers for the Artemis program.
- SpaceX holds the Artemis III contract (Starship HLS, mid-2027 target, now reconfigured as an Earth-orbit test).
- the named outcome holds the Artemis V contract (Blue Moon Mark 2, ~2030).
- In October 2025, then-acting NASA Administrator Sean Duffy reopened the Artemis III landing contract amid Starship HLS delays, and the named outcome is reportedly developing a "Mark 1.5" crewed variant based on Blue Moon Mark 1 that could potentially fly sooner.
- This market resolves based on which company's lander first carries at least one human to a soft landing on the lunar surface, whether on a NASA Artemis mission, a commercial mission, or any other flight.
- Resolution criteria:
Open markets
TechKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above+68.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-23.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-9.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $682.4K
- 24h Vol
- $661.4K
KALSHIGuyana Amazon Warriors vs Antigua And Barbuda Falcons
- Guyana Amazon Warriors-3.0pt60.4%
- Antigua And Barbuda Falcons+3.0pt39.6%
- Total Vol
- $654.7K
- 24h Vol
- $626.1K
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+43.0pt99%
- Houston+70.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+17.0pt99%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $504.6K
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+53.0pt95.2%
- 79° or below-2.0pt1%
- 82° to 83°-45.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $69,000 or above99%
- $69,500 or above98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3M
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+7.0pt34.3%
- 160-179+2.0pt23.8%
- 200-219-1.0pt19.1%
+23 more outcomes
- Elon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- BTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
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- Highest temperature in Chicago on Sep 8, 2026?
- Next James Bond actor?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who will land humans on the Moon first: SpaceX or Blue Origin??
- Manifold Markets prices SpaceX at 56% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Who will land humans on the Moon first: SpaceX or Blue Origin? resolve?
- Who will land humans on the Moon first: SpaceX or Blue Origin? is scheduled to resolve on December 30, 2032.
- How is Who will land humans on the Moon first: SpaceX or Blue Origin? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: As of April 2026, SpaceX and the named outcome are NASA's two contracted Human Landing System (HLS) providers for the Artemis program.