KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Before Jan 1, 2027 (59%)
Resolved: Oct 22, 2026, 5:19 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 22, 2026, 4:28 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Before Mar 1, 202774%
Before Jan 1, 202759%
Before Feb 1, 202766%
Before Dec 1, 202641%
Before Mar 1, 2027Lost
Before Feb 1, 2027Lost
Before Jan 1, 2027Won
Before Dec 1, 2026Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will any state enact a data center moratorium by December 31?
PolymarketWill any state enact a data center moratorium law?
KalshiWill at least one U.S. state enact a binding statewide moratorium on new hyperscale data centers before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the AI Data Center Moratorium Act (S.4214) pass Congress by end of the 119th Congress?
Manifold MarketsWill Gov. Hochul sign New York's data center moratorium (S10642/A11560) into law by Dec 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Gov. Hochul sign New York's data center moratorium (S10642/A11560) into law by Dec 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
If a statewide moratorium, pause, or ban on new data center construction or permitting is enacted in any U.S. state except New York before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:ABCthe Federal RegisterThe InformationMSNBCCBSthe Associated PressThe Washington PostAxiosCNNThe Wall Street JournalFox NewsThe New York TimesNBCSemaforPoliticoBloomberg NewsReuters
- Enactment requires completion of all constitutional and legal requirements for the legislation to become binding law. Standard legislation requiring executive approval: final passage by all required legislative bodies, executive signature OR becoming law despite executive inaction OR successful veto override, and satisfaction of any required waiting periods Legislation not requiring executive approval: final passage and completion of required waiting periods Constitutional amendments: passage with required supermajorities and completion of ratification processes Executive orders: official signature, publication in official government records, and legal effectiveness The following do NOT constitute enactment: Legislative passage without completed executive action Passage by only some required bodies Provisional passage Non-binding resolutions Draft orders Enactment occurs when all requirements are completed, regardless of pending judicial challenges.
Rules for each outcome
- Before Mar 1, 2027
- If a statewide moratorium, pause, or ban on new data center construction or permitting is enacted in any U.S. state except New York before Mar 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Feb 1, 2027
- If a statewide moratorium, pause, or ban on new data center construction or permitting is enacted in any U.S. state except New York before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If a statewide moratorium, pause, or ban on new data center construction or permitting is enacted in any U.S. state except New York before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Dec 1, 2026
- If a statewide moratorium, pause, or ban on new data center construction or permitting is enacted in any U.S. state except New York before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.