KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Before Jan 1, 2027 95%+1.0ptLeader of 4 outcomes
Market quality
73 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$511.6
Liquidity
$567.7K
High liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Aug 6, 26, 9:15 PM UTCOct 1, 26, 2:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Clarity Act will pass in September
Manifold MarketsHow many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
PolymarketWhich Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
KalshiWhich Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
PolymarketHow many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
KalshiWill Mitch McConnell cast a Senate vote by Sept. 30?
PredictItRules
If the Senate has conducted any recorded vote on the CLARITY Act after Issuance and the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
- This includes: Roll call votes Recorded votes Yea-and-nay votes Electronic votes (in the House) Division/standing votes
- The following do NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion: Voice votes where individual member positions are not recorded Unanimous consent agreements without a recorded vote Votes in committee, unless the bill/motion specifically refers to a committee vote Procedural determinations by the presiding officer Deemed passage without an actual vote
- For clarity: A vote on cloture regarding the bill/motion, including cloture on a motion to proceed to the bill/motion, DOES satisfy the Payout Criterion A vote on the rule governing debate of the bill/motion DOES satisfy the Payout Criterion if the bill/motion specifically refers to that rule A vote on a motion to proceed to the bill/motion DOES satisfy the Payout Criterion A vote on final passage DOES satisfy the Payout Criterion A vote on an amendment to the bill/motion does NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion unless the bill/motion specifically refers to that amendment
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Limitless — When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act? · Before Jan 1, 2027 96%
Open markets
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+1.0pt86%
- Yes-1.0pt14%
- Total Vol
- $14.5M
- 24h Vol
- $149K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.8M
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Oct 1, 2027-6.0pt39%
- Before Jan 1, 2028+13.0pt37%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-8.0pt32%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T21.9%
- $1.75T–$2.0T20.8%
- $1.5T–$1.75T-3.1pt16.7%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIHow many states will adopt data center moratoriums in 2026?
- At least 3+18.0pt87%
- At least 267%
- At least 4+13.0pt57%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $49.4K
- Will marijuana be rescheduled?
- Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by September 30?
- Weed rescheduled by which date?
- Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?
- SpaceX' Market Cap end of October 2026?
- OpenAI’s valuation end of October 2026?
- Will Wyoming create a Digital Asset Authority?
- LSU to leave the SEC before 2027?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act??
- Kalshi prices Before Jan 1, 2027 at 95% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act? resolve?
- When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act? is scheduled to resolve on October 1, 2026.
- How is When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the Senate has conducted any recorded vote on the CLARITY Act after Issuance and the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Where else is When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Limitless.