KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityNone before July 2027 24%-1.0%Leader of 3 outcomes
Market quality
73 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$15.9K
Liquidity
$1.1M
High liquidityBid / Ask
23.0% / 26.0%
Spread
13.0%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Dec 11, 25, 9:45 PMJul 1, 27, 3:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
None before July 202724%
Compare venues· Paramount
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall75% match · verified | High | 72% | 0pt | $825.3 | $51.1K | 11 minutes ago | Open → |
| KalshiThis pageMost active | Medium | 74% | +2pt | $15.9K | $1.1M | 11 minutes ago |
Also available on Polymarket
Who will close Warner Bros. acquisition?
5.5%11mo
-0.5%72%
+5.5%23%
0%
+12 more outcomes
80 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$1.2M
24h Vol$825.3
POLYMARKETRules
If qualifying public announcements indicate Netflix's takeover of Warner Brothers has succeeded Before July 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- A takeover "succeeds" when BOTH of the following are publicly announced: (a) Corporate Approval—shareholders approved the acquisition OR the acquirer acquired controlling interest (>50% of voting shares); AND (b) Conditions Satisfaction—all material conditions including regulatory approvals have been satisfied or waived.
- Press releases, SEC filings (8-K, Schedule TO amendments), and official company announcements qualify.
- Letters of intent, agreements in principle, or conditional announcements do not satisfy the criteria.
- If one acquirer's takeover succeeds, all other acquirer markets immediately resolve to No.
- Resolution is based on the announcements, not the ultimate transaction outcome—if both criteria are announced but the deal later fails, the market still resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$1.1k98.0%KALSHINetflix — No5d ago
KALSHINetflix — No5d ago$3.6k86.0%KALSHIParamount — Yes5d ago
KALSHIParamount — Yes5d agoVolume trend
$15.9kJul 221d of dataJul 22
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If qualifying public announcements indicate Netflix's takeover of Warner Brothers has succeeded Before July 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- A takeover "succeeds" when BOTH of the following are publicly announced: (a) Corporate Approval—shareholders approved the acquisition OR the acquirer acquired controlling interest (>50% of voting shares); AND (b) Conditions Satisfaction—all material conditions including regulatory approvals have been satisfied or waived.
- Press releases, SEC filings (8-K, Schedule TO amendments), and official company announcements qualify.
- Letters of intent, agreements in principle, or conditional announcements do not satisfy the criteria.
- If one acquirer's takeover succeeds, all other acquirer markets immediately resolve to No.
- Resolution is based on the announcements, not the ultimate transaction outcome—if both criteria are announced but the deal later fails, the market still resolves to Yes.