Which banks will fail by end of 2026?
0.7% (24h)RegulationYearlyCorporate ActionsBusiness & CorporateMacro & EconomyCommodities5mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
JPMorgan Chase 5%-0.9%Leader of 19 outcomes
Market quality
64 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$685.7
Liquidity
$53.9K
High liquidityBid / Ask
1.5% / 2.9%
Spread
93.3%
Wide spread7d Change
+0.5%
Market data
Updated 20 minutes ago
Apr 8, 26, 11:23 PMDec 31, 26, 11:55 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
JPMorgan Chase5%
Volume trend
$686Jul 225d of dataJul 26
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework, within the listed date range:
- - The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions. - The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank. - A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention. - The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank. - The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
- If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open until April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET to allow for confirmation.
- If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”