Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
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KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Yes 88%
Market quality
82 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$1K
Liquidity
$511.3K
High liquidityBid / Ask
87.0% / 88.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Jul 31, 26, 8:45 PMOct 7, 26, 2:00 PM
Trends
Rules
If California authorizes an alternative wage or provides qualifying relief from goat herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:California
- A "Qualifying Action" means: A California statute has become law, whether by the Governor's signature, by passage over a gubernatorial veto under Article IV, Section 10(a) of the California Constitution, or by operation of Article IV, Section 10(b), and regardless of vehicle, including a policy bill, urgency statute, budget bill, budget trailer bill, or special session bill; A regulation finally approved by the California Office of Administrative Law and filed with the California Secretary of State, or an Industrial Welfare Commission wage order that has been amended or republished and has taken effect; A written regulation, binding directive, final order, or formal statewide enforcement policy issued by a California state agency, department, board, commission, or officer with authority over the subject matter, including but not limited to the Department of Industrial Relations, the Labor Commissioner and the Division of Labor Standards Enforcement, the Industrial Welfare Commission, the Employment Development Department, the Department of Food and Agriculture, the Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, and the Department of Finance.
- An opinion letter or official interpretation is included only if it binds the issuing body or expressly states that body's statewide enforcement position; An executive order or proclamation issued by the Governor of California; or A written order entered by a California state court or a United States federal court.
- Which has at least one of the following effects: It reenacts, revives, restores, or extends the alternative monthly wage authority formerly contained in California Labor Code Section 2695.4(a), or establishes an alternative to it; "Goat herder" means an individual employed to perform any of the duties described in former California Labor Code Section 2695.3(d), as that section read immediately before its repeal on July 1, 2026.
- Where an instrument described above defines goat herders or a comparable class differently, that instrument's definition governs for purposes of applying the Payout Criterion to that instrument.
- It provides that goat herders are eligible for the alternative monthly wage framework applicable to sheepherders under California Labor Code Sections 2695.1 and 2695.2, including by determining that "sheepherder" as used in California Labor Code Section 2695.2 encompasses goat herders; It establishes an alternative monthly wage, a special minimum wage, a modified overtime threshold, a modified compensable-hours rule, an exemption in whole or in part from minimum wage or overtime requirements, a safe harbor, or a limitation on damages or penalties (subject to the conditions set out in what would NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion), in each case applicable to goat herders or their employers; It directs that any portion of the minimum wage or overtime obligations otherwise applicable to California employers of goat herders not be enforced or collected, including by a formal written policy of enforcement forbearance; It provides employers of goat herders a tax credit, reimbursement, grant, subsidy, payment, or contract price adjustment expressly tied to goat herder minimum wage or overtime obligations; or It enjoins or prohibits the enforcement or collection of any portion of the minimum wage or overtime obligations otherwise applicable to California employers of goat herders, or declares those obligations wholly or partially inapplicable to goat herders.
