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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Space
  3. Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?

Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?

1.0% (24h)SpaceScienceWeatherYearly6mo
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 32%+1.0%
Market quality

28 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$7.7

Liquidity

$19.6

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

28.0% / 33.0%

Spread

17.9%

Wide spread
Market data

Updated 1 minute ago

Dec 22, 25, 3:00 PMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes32%

Rules

If the unsmoothed Land-Ocean Temperature Index value for 2026 reported by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) is above 2025 value and 1.28 degrees Celsius, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The market will close at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026.
  • The market will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for 2026, or 10:00 AM ET April 01, 2027

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Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?

Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?

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2026 June 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

2026 June 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

$234.8
2nd hottest: 86%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Manifold Markets

Will global CO2 emissions decrease in 2026?

$200
Yes: 20.2%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?

Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?

$109.8
<4m: 51%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?

How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?

$3.8
Above 2: 67%KalshiKALSHI
How many Eastern Pacific hurricanes will there be this year?

How many Eastern Pacific hurricanes will there be this year?

$0
Above 5: 0%KalshiKALSHI

Active in these topics

BitcoinBTC$62,604.58+2.36%EthereumETH$1,650.76+1.70%SolanaSOL$65.09+1.42%HyperliquidHYPE$54.70-1.20%XRPXRP$1.12+0.22%DogecoinDOGE$0.085+1.77%

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Rules

If the unsmoothed Land-Ocean Temperature Index value for 2026 reported by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) is above 2025 value and 1.28 degrees Celsius, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The market will close at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026.
  • The market will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for 2026, or 10:00 AM ET April 01, 2027