Current community forecast
3 or more 97.8%Leader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
65
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-0.1 pts
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Aug 2, 25, 1:13 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How many Starship launches will occur in 2027?
Manifold MarketsHow many Starship launches will occur in 2028?
Manifold MarketsStortest gap between two SpaceX Starship launches in 2026
Manifold MarketsHow many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
LimitlessStarship launches humans to Mars before 2030?
KalshiHow many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?
KalshiRules
Launch is defined as lifting off from the pad, even slightly, under the thrust of its own engines (the launch does not have to be successful)
- Must be a full stack launch, but any Starship variant counts
- Answers will resolve as they are fulfilled
- I may resolve answers NO early if I'm exceedingly certain they aren't attainable
- UTC is used for determining 2026 start/end
Prediction Source Comparison
Open markets
TechKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above+68.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-29.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-6.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $724.5K
- 24h Vol
- $674.2K
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+46.0pt99%
- Houston+61.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+3.0pt99%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $704.2K
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $75,000 or above99%
- $74,750 or above99%
- $75,250 or above98%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $483.2K
- 24h Vol
- $482.8K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+7.0pt33.6%
- 160-179+4.0pt28.9%
- 200-219-3.0pt15.4%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $73,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $72,500 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,000 or above99%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3M
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 40-64+26.0pt91%
- 65-89-14.0pt9%
- <40-24.4pt0%
+7 more outcomes
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Foldable iPhone Announced Price?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
- Next James Bond actor?
- BTC 15 min · $78,917.56 target
- Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 9, 2026?
- Highest temperature in San Francisco on Sep 8, 2026?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for How many Starship launches will occur in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices 3 or more at 98% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does How many Starship launches will occur in 2026? resolve?
- How many Starship launches will occur in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is How many Starship launches will occur in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Launch is defined as lifting off from the pad, even slightly, under the thrust of its own engines (the launch does not have to be successful)
- Where else is How many Starship launches will occur in 2026? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Polymarket, Limitless, Kalshi.