Current community forecast
5 or more 27%+1.5%Leader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
60
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 28 minutes ago
Aug 2, 25, 1:13 AMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
5 or more27%
Compare venues· 3 or more
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBest overall82% match · verified | Medium | 51% | — | $980.5 | $16K | 28 minutes ago | Open → |
 Polymarket82% match · verified | Medium | 66% | — | $847.9 | $18K | 8 minutes ago | Open → |
| Kalshi80% match · verified | Low | 88% | — | $0 | $2.6K | 28 minutes ago | Open → |
 Limitless82% match · linked | Low | 66% | — | $0 | $0 | 28 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold MarketsThis page | — | 89% | — | — | — | 28 minutes ago |
Also available on Polymarket
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
6.5%5mo
+6.5%66%
-5.5%19%
-0.8%11%
+5 more outcomes
52 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$489.6K
24h Vol$847.9
POLYMARKETAlso available on Kalshi
How many SpaceX Starship launches will reach space in 2026?
1.0%5mo
51%
18%
+2.0%16%
+7 more outcomes
52 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$25.5K
24h Vol$980.5
KALSHIAlso available on Limitless
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
5mo
66.4%
19.3%
11.8%
+5 more outcomes
28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$24.6
24h Vol$0
LIMITLESSAlso available on Kalshi
How many Starship launches will reach space in 2026?
5mo
88%
71%
38%
+7 more outcomes
49 • Low qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$3.3K
24h Vol$0
KALSHIRules
Launch is defined as lifting off from the pad, even slightly, under the thrust of its own engines (the launch does not have to be successful)
- Must be a full stack launch, but any Starship variant counts
- Answers will resolve as they are fulfilled
- I may resolve answers NO early if I'm exceedingly certain they aren't attainable
- UTC is used for determining 2026 start/end
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$1.3kJul 817d of dataJul 26
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Launch is defined as lifting off from the pad, even slightly, under the thrust of its own engines (the launch does not have to be successful)
- Must be a full stack launch, but any Starship variant counts
- Answers will resolve as they are fulfilled
- I may resolve answers NO early if I'm exceedingly certain they aren't attainable
- UTC is used for determining 2026 start/end