Data quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 7:03 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
3 or more 100%Leader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
71
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+2.9 pts
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleAug 2, 25, 1:13 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Stortest gap between two SpaceX Starship launches in 2026
Manifold MarketsHow many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
LimitlessHow many Starship launches will occur in 2027?
Manifold MarketsHow many Starship launches will occur in 2028?
Manifold MarketsStarship launches humans to Mars before 2030?
KalshiIn what year will the number of Starship launches exceed the number of Falcon launches?
Manifold MarketsRules
Launch is defined as lifting off from the pad, even slightly, under the thrust of its own engines (the launch does not have to be successful)
- Must be a full stack launch, but any Starship variant counts
- Answers will resolve as they are fulfilled
- I may resolve answers NO early if I'm exceedingly certain they aren't attainable
- UTC is used for determining 2026 start/end
