Current implied probability
Anthropic 52%+2.5%Leader of 32 outcomes
Market quality
36 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$437.5
Liquidity
$2.4K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
9.0% / 55.0%
Spread
511.1%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 19 minutes ago
Jul 20, 26, 11:10 PMSep 30, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Anthropic52%
Volume trend
$438Jul 212d of dataJul 22
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This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
- Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
- Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time.
- If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard.
- If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”).
- This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.