PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: 40-64
Resolved: Sep 9, 2026, 6:02 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
40-64
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
47%
SurpriseData quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 10, 2026, 1:27 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
<403%
90-1144%
65-890%
40-6495%
140-1640%
165-1890%
40-64Won
<40Lost
65-89Lost
90-114Lost
115-139Lost
140-164Lost
165-189Lost
190-214Lost
215-239Lost
240+Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Elon Musk tweets "Manifold Markets" before 2027?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk significantly backs a third party in Midterms?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk and Donald Trump publicly support different candidates in any 2026 election?
Manifold MarketsHow rich will Elon Musk get before 2027?
KalshiElon Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027?
KalshiElon Musk net worth on December 31, 2026
KalshiRules
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 7 12:00 PM ET to September 9, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
- For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
- Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
- Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
- Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
- The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com.