PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityYes 88.1%-0.0pt
Market quality
76 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$3K
Liquidity
$29.5K
High liquidityBid / Ask
88.0% / 89.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spread7d Change
+5.0 pts
Market data
Updated 18 minutes ago
Dec 12, 25, 6:29 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes89%
Compare venues· Yes
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketThis pageBest overall | High | 89% | — | $3K | $29.5K | 18 minutes ago | |
 Manifold Markets93% match · auto | — | 91% | — | — | — | 46 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Manifold Markets
Apple to release a foldable iPhone before 2027?
5mo
90.9%
9.1%
Community forecast139 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases a foldable iPhone by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe.
- An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
- A qualifying release of a foldable smartphone by Apple will count even if it is not explicitly branded an iPhone.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$3.0kJul 226d of dataJul 27
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases a foldable iPhone by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe.
- An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
- A qualifying release of a foldable smartphone by Apple will count even if it is not explicitly branded an iPhone.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple.