Current implied probability
OpenAI 83.5%+2.5ptLeader of 18 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
55 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$16.5K
Liquidity
$20.7K
Medium liquiditySpread
6.0 pt
Wide spreadComments
0
7d Change
+12.0 pts
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingAug 12, 26, 11:40 PMOct 1, 26, 3:59 AM
Trends
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Rules
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
- Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
- Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
- AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time.
- If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view.
- If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard.
