Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
1.2 pts (24h)TechOne-OffSpaceScienceGeopolitics4y
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
United States 55.2%+1.2ptLeader of 5 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
66 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$23.1
Liquidity
$68.3K
High liquiditySpread
1.2 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Nov 28, 24, 3:00 PMJan 1, 31, 3:00 PM
Trends
Rules
If the named outcome is the first country to launch a manned mission to the Moon before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The New York Times
- If Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) or another US-based company launches a manned mission to the Moon first then the market resolves to Yes for the the named outcome.
- If Russia is the first country to launch a manned mission to the Moon before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If India is the first country to launch a manned mission to the Moon before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If China is the first country to launch a manned mission to the Moon before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
TechKALSHIBTC price on Aug 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $75,250 or above99%
- $74,000 or above99%
- $74,500 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.6M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5M
KALSHIBTC price on Aug 28, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $69,000 or above+2.0pt97%
- $67,000 or above-2.0pt97%
- $68,500 or above97%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets August 18 - August 25, 2026?
- 300-319+16.1pt46.9%
- 320-339+7.0pt36.7%
- 340-359-6.0pt11.2%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIBitcoin price at the end of 2026
- 80,000 to 84,999.99+0.6pt11.7%
- 75,000 to 79,999.99-1.1pt10.7%
- 70,000 to 74,999.99-0.5pt9.7%
+25 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIETH price on Aug 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $2,360 or above99%
- $2,320 or above99%
- $2,400 or above96%
+37 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $180.2K
- 24h Vol
- $177.3K
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Aug 24, 2026?
- 84° to 85°-2.0pt41.9%
- 82° to 83°+19.0pt32.4%
- 86° to 87°-2.0pt15.2%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon??
- Kalshi prices United States at 55% as of August 24, 2026.
- When does Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? resolve?
- Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2031.
- How is Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the named outcome is the first country to launch a manned mission to the Moon before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes.