Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
1.0% (24h)ChinaOne-OffSpaceScienceGeopoliticsTech4y
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityChina 45%-1.0%Leader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
56 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$173.7
Liquidity
$66.9K
High liquidityBid / Ask
40.0% / 45.0%
Spread
12.5%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Nov 28, 24, 3:00 PMJan 1, 31, 3:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
China45%
Volume trend
$174Jul 28d of dataJul 9
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If United States is the first country to launch a manned mission to the Moon before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Space Exploration Technologies Corp.
- (SpaceX) or another US-based company launches a manned mission to the Moon first then the market resolves to Yes for the United States.
- If Russia is the first country to launch a manned mission to the Moon before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If India is the first country to launch a manned mission to the Moon before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If China is the first country to launch a manned mission to the Moon before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes.