Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 66.2%
Forecasters
39
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleAug 29, 23, 10:03 AM UTCJan 1, 60, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How much utility-scale solar power will the US install in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Earth have a Space Elevator before 2060?
Manifold MarketsHow much solar power will the world install in 2027?
Manifold MarketsUS solar capacity installed in 2026
KalshiWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiRules
Resolves YES if the earth's total (known, published) capacity for space-based solar power exceeds 2GW, averaged over 1 hour, any time before the year 2060.
- This refers to power generated by solar panels in space being transmitted to earth and captured for terrestrial use, at the output of the rectenna/receiver.
- This can be satisfied by the sum of multiple systems across multiple nations.
- This can be satisfied by the sum total of military LEO power delivery, but only if confirmed/published by corresponding authorities.
- I anticipate (and would prefer) that this will instead be satisfied by a geostationary system intended primarily for civilian benefit.
- Update 2025-11-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Space-based reflectors do not count.
Open markets
Geopolitics
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.8M
- 24h Vol
- $574.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.1pt48.3%
- October 31-3.0pt28.9%
- September 30-4.0pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-4.0pt75%
- September 18-7.0pt69%
- September 11-13.0pt57%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $109.5K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Earth have space-based solar power at scale by 2060??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 66% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Earth have space-based solar power at scale by 2060? resolve?
- Will Earth have space-based solar power at scale by 2060? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2060.
- How is Will Earth have space-based solar power at scale by 2060? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if the earth's total (known, published) capacity for space-based solar power exceeds 2GW, averaged over 1 hour, any time before the year 2060.