Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 11:51 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 66.2%
Forecasters
39
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleAug 29, 23, 10:03 AM UTCJan 1, 60, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will there be a functional space-based solar power plant before 2045?
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KalshiWho will win the new race to the Moon?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves YES if the earth's total (known, published) capacity for space-based solar power exceeds 2GW, averaged over 1 hour, any time before the year 2060.
- This refers to power generated by solar panels in space being transmitted to earth and captured for terrestrial use, at the output of the rectenna/receiver.
- This can be satisfied by the sum of multiple systems across multiple nations.
- This can be satisfied by the sum total of military LEO power delivery, but only if confirmed/published by corresponding authorities.
- I anticipate (and would prefer) that this will instead be satisfied by a geostationary system intended primarily for civilian benefit.
- Update 2025-11-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Space-based reflectors do not count.
