Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 74.9%
Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleDec 29, 23, 12:11 AM UTCMar 1, 60, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Earth have a Space Elevator before 2055?
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KalshiEvidence of life out of Earth by the end of 2026?
FutuurWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketRules
Resolves as YES if, by January 1st, 2060, Earth is equipped with an operational Space Elevator.
- This refers to a structure or a system of structures that extends from the surface of the Earth into space, allowing for the transport of goods and people to and from Earth's orbit without the use of traditional rocket propulsion.
- The Space Elevator must be capable of regular operation and able to sustain continuous movement of payloads between Earth and space.
- Questions with the same criteria:
- @/RemNi/will-earth-have-a-space-elevator-be-3192414ff7cb
- @/RemNi/will-earth-have-a-space-elevator-be-292c3a01b029
Open markets
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-1.8pt9%
- Google2%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $121.9K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Total Vol
- $53.1K
- 24h Vol
- $53.1K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt59.4%
- SpaceX-4.0pt38.5%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-16.0pt19%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt67%
- June 30, 2027-0.5pt53%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Earth have a Space Elevator before 2060??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 75% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Earth have a Space Elevator before 2060? resolve?
- Will Earth have a Space Elevator before 2060? is scheduled to resolve on March 1, 2060.
- How is Will Earth have a Space Elevator before 2060? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves as YES if, by January 1st, 2060, Earth is equipped with an operational Space Elevator.