Current community forecast
Yes 63.2%
Forecasters
75
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleFeb 28, 23, 6:55 PM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which crewed vehicle will be next to land humans on the Moon?
Manifold MarketsWill China land humans on the Moon before the US returns astronauts to the lunar surface?
Manifold MarketsWho will land humans on the Moon first: SpaceX or Blue Origin?
Manifold MarketsWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
PolymarketWill Xi Jinping visit US by which date?
PolymarketRules
claim in tweet says 2029, I gave 1 extra year to make it more interesting: https://nitter.cz/YuqiiQian/status/1629828184081567745#m
- Feb 28, 9:45pm: Will CNSA / China land on the moon by 2030? → Will CNSA / China land on the moon by the end of 2030?
- Feb 28, 10:35pm: Will CNSA / China land on the moon by the end of 2030? → Will CNSA / China land humans on the moon by the end of 2030?
Open markets
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-1.8pt9%
- Google2%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $121.9K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Total Vol
- $53.1K
- 24h Vol
- $53.1K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt59.4%
- SpaceX-4.0pt38.5%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-16.0pt19%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt67%
- June 30, 2027-0.5pt53%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will CNSA / China land humans on the moon by the end of 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 63% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will CNSA / China land humans on the moon by the end of 2030? resolve?
- Will CNSA / China land humans on the moon by the end of 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.
- How is Will CNSA / China land humans on the moon by the end of 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: claim in tweet says 2029, I gave 1 extra year to make it more interesting: https://nitter.cz/YuqiiQian/status/1629828184081567745#m