Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2026?
Russia / UkraineOne-OffSpaceScienceChina2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 94.6%
No 94.6%Forecasters
20
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleDec 23, 23, 6:20 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 10:59 PM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if, by December 31, 2026, evidence of extraterrestrial life is presented, meeting the following criteria:
- Publication in a Recognized Scientific Journal: The evidence must be documented in at least one peer-reviewed article in a high-impact scientific journal with substantial academic reputation.
- Relevant fields for this evidence include astronomy, astrobiology, or similar scientific disciplines.
- Prominent journals like 'Nature' and 'Science' are ideal, but other journals of equivalent standing are also suitable.
- Confirmation by Space Exploration Authorities: The evidence must be independently confirmed or endorsed by at least two esteemed space exploration agencies or government entities.
- These might include NASA (United States), ESA (European Space Agency), Roscosmos (Russia), CNSA (China National Space Administration), or ISRO (Indian Space Research Organisation).
