Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2030?
Russia / UkraineOne-OffSpaceScienceChina4yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 85%
Forecasters
26
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleDec 23, 23, 6:30 PM UTCJan 1, 31, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if, by December 31, 2030, evidence of extraterrestrial life is presented, meeting these criteria:
- Publication in a Recognized Scientific Journal: The evidence must be detailed in a peer-reviewed article in a high-impact scientific journal of significant academic standing.
- Fields pertinent to this evidence include astronomy and astrobiology, among others.
- Journals like 'Nature' and 'Science' are ideal, but other journals of comparable standing are also acceptable.
- Confirmation by Space Exploration Authorities: The evidence must be independently confirmed or endorsed by at least two reputable space exploration agencies or governmental bodies.
- Potential agencies include, but are not limited to, NASA (United States), ESA (European Space Agency), Roscosmos (Russia), CNSA (China National Space Administration), or ISRO (Indian Space Research Organisation).
