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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Russia / Ukraine
  3. Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?

0.5% (24h)One-OffRussia / Ukraine6mo
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
December 31
December 31 38%+0.5%
Market quality

91 / 100

High quality
24h Volume

$1.5K

Liquidity

$70.1K

High liquidity
Bid / Ask

37.0% / 38.0%

Spread

2.7%

Tight spread
7d Change

+2.0%

Market data

Updated 8 minutes ago

Feb 19, 26, 8:45 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

December 3138%

Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.528896° N, 37.702514° E) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Kostyantynivka will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
  • If the area is not shaded red by the resolution date, the market will resolve to “No”.
  • For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
  • If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
  • Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.

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Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.528896° N, 37.702514° E) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Kostyantynivka will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
  • If the area is not shaded red by the resolution date, the market will resolve to “No”.
  • For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
  • If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
  • Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.