PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
December 31 47%+2.5%Leader of 4 outcomes
Market quality
89 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$10.8K
Liquidity
$85.5K
High liquidityBid / Ask
46.0% / 48.0%
Spread
4.3%
Moderate spread7d Change
-1.5%
Market data
Updated 14 minutes ago
Feb 19, 26, 8:42 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
December 3147%
Large trades
$1.8k49.0%POLYMARKETWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? — YesM888010d ago
POLYMARKETWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? — YesM888010d ago$1.3k94.7%POLYMARKETWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by July 31, 2026? — Nonedsta23d ago
POLYMARKETWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by July 31, 2026? — Nonedsta23d agoVolume trend
$10.8kJul 226d of dataJul 27
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.528896° N, 37.702514° E) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Kostyantynivka will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
- If the area is not shaded red by the resolution date, the market will resolve to “No”.
- For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
- If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
- Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.