PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
December 31 44%+1.0ptLeader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
≤74 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$14.5K
Liquidity
$104.8K
High liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
59
7d Change
+5.0 pts
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Feb 19, 26, 8:42 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by which date?
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Manifold MarketsWill Russia capture Lyman in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Ukraine capture more territory than it loses to Russia in October 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.528896° N, 37.702514° E) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Kostyantynivka will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
- If the area is not shaded red by the resolution date, the market will resolve to “No”.
- For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
- If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
- Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.