Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by which date?
3.0 pts (24h)Russia / UkraineOne-OffTech3mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
December 31 78%-3.0ptLeader of 3 outcomes
Market quality
58 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$294
Liquidity
$16.8K
Medium liquiditySpread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
2
7d Change
+1.0 pts
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Aug 18, 26, 7:45 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the building at 48.538085° N, 37.688345° E in Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- The building station will be considered captured if any part of the buildings grey area is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
- If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
- For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
- If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
- Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.