PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeCurrent implied probabilityDopropillia 36%-1.0%Leader of 8 outcomes
Market quality
80 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$707.6
Liquidity
$53.3K
High liquidityBid / Ask
20.0% / 21.0%
Spread
5.0%
Moderate spread7d Change
-1.0%
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
May 11, 26, 8:14 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Selected outcome
Dopropillia36%
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of [the specified city or settlement] () by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
- Territory will be considered captured if any part of the city or settlement is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
- Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
- For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
- If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
- Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.