Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 59%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleJun 4, 26, 11:32 PM UTCNov 30, 27, 9:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Russia capture Kramatorsk at least once before EOY 2026?
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve YES if, at any time before the close date, Russia controls any part of Kramatorsk, Donetsk Oblast.
- This market will otherwise resolve NO at the close date.
- For the duration of the war, any YES resolution must be supported by a majority of the following sources:
- UAControlMap
- UkrDailyUpdate
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-6.0pt74%
- September 18-6.0pt69%
- September 11-8.5pt62%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.2M
- 24h Vol
- $424.6K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+1.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)+0.4pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.1pt3%
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+3.0pt79.2%
- Yes-3.0pt20.8%
- Total Vol
- $10.9M
- 24h Vol
- $286K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.1pt49.1%
- October 31-1.0pt28.8%
- September 3011.9%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
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- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by the end of November 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 59% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by the end of November 2027? resolve?
- Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by the end of November 2027? is scheduled to resolve on November 30, 2027.
- How is Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by the end of November 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria