Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 17, 2026, 6:20 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current community forecastYes 73.4%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 days ago
StaleJan 25, 26, 9:53 PMDec 30, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes73%
Compare venues· Yes
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall82% match · verified | Medium | 17% | — | $250.7 | $13.1K | 9 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold MarketsThis page | — | 73% | — | — | — | 9 days ago |
Also available on Polymarket
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by which date?
0.5 pts5mo
-0.5pt17%
-0.7pt0%
57 • Medium qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$289.5K
24h Vol$250.7
POLYMARKETRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$6.3k99.9%POLYMARKETNonoreasapa26d ago
POLYMARKETNonoreasapa26d agoVolume trend
$100Jul 162d of dataJul 17
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KALSHIActive in these topics
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Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.