Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 67.5%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleJan 25, 26, 9:53 PM UTCDec 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Russia capture Lyman by which date?
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Manifold MarketsWill Ukraine capture the city of Donetsk before the Russia-Ukraine war ends
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Russian forces establish full military control over Lyman, Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026.
- Resolution sources
- Confirmation from: (at least 3 of these) Suriyakmaps, Kalibrated, Military Summary, DPA, AMK
- Official statements from Ukrainian/Russian military command
- Map shaded red on ISW map
Prediction Source Comparison
Open markets
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+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.8M
- 24h Vol
- $660.5K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
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- New People (NL)-1.9pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.1pt3%
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- December 31+1.4pt50%
- October 3128.8%
- September 30-1.0pt11.9%
+17 more outcomes
KALSHIUS-Iran nuclear deal?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-4.0pt30%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-4.0pt22%
- Before Feb 1, 2027+1.0pt10%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- December 3110%
- November 30-1.5pt5%
- October 31-1.2pt3%
+6 more outcomes
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Russia capture Lyman in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 68% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Will Russia capture Lyman in 2026? resolve?
- Will Russia capture Lyman in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 30, 2026.
- How is Will Russia capture Lyman in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria
- Where else is Will Russia capture Lyman in 2026? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Polymarket.