Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 7:33 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 81.4%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleJan 25, 26, 9:53 PM UTCDec 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Russian forces establish full military control over Lyman, Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026.
- Resolution sources
- Confirmation from: (at least 3 of these) Suriyakmaps, Kalibrated, Military Summary, DPA, AMK
- Official statements from Ukrainian/Russian military command
- Map shaded red on ISW map