PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
December 31 51%+0.5%Leader of 10 outcomes
Market quality
64 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$2.4K
Liquidity
$43.2K
High liquidityBid / Ask
14.0% / 16.0%
Spread
14.3%
Wide spread7d Change
-6.0%
Market data
Updated 15 minutes ago
Jul 22, 25, 9:41 PMDec 31, 26, 11:55 PM
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
December 3151%
Volume trend
$2.4kJul 225d of dataJul 26
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.
- The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
- If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
- If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map.
- An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify.
- Actual control must be established.