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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Russia / Ukraine
  3. Will Russia capture Lyman by...?
Will Russia capture Lyman by...?

Will Russia capture Lyman by...?

2.5% (24h)One-OffRussia / Ukraine6mo
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
December 31
December 31 47%-4.0%
Leader of 9 outcomes
Market quality

73 / 100

Medium quality
24h Volume

$6.8K

Liquidity

$31.4K

High liquidity
Bid / Ask

7.0% / 8.0%

Spread

14.3%

Wide spread
Market data

Updated 6 minutes ago

Jul 22, 25, 9:41 PMDec 31, 26, 11:55 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance
December 31
December 31
0%
November 30
November 30
0%
March 31
March 31
0%
January 31
January 31
0%

Selected outcome

December 3147%

Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
  • If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
  • If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map.
  • An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify.
  • Actual control must be established.

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Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
  • If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
  • If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map.
  • An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify.
  • Actual control must be established.