PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
June 30, · —
Loading selected book…
—
Stored reference
June 30, 56%Leader of 4 outcomes
June 30, 56%Market quality
69 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$6.8K
Liquidity
$25.2K
High liquidityBid / Ask
— / —
June 30,Spread
—
Comments
3
Market data
Updated 34 minutes ago
May 21, 26, 5:48 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
September 30Lost
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
Market depth · June 30,
Loading selected book…
—
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by which date?
PolymarketWill Russia capture all of Bilytske by which date?
PolymarketWill Russia capture Dobropillia by which date?
PolymarketWill Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by which date?
PolymarketWill Russia capture Kramatorsk at least once before EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia capture Lyman in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the train station in Orikhiv (47.559860° N, 35.786219° E), Zaporizhzhia Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
- Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
- For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
- If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
- Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances