PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
December 31 71%-1.0pt
Market quality
64 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$919.4
Liquidity
$35.9K
High liquidityBid / Ask
18.0% / 20.0%
Spread
2.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
4
7d Change
-1.5 pts
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
May 21, 26, 5:42 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Chasiv Yar, Donetsk Oblast, (48.589446° N, 37.831430° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
- Chasiv Yar will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
- If the area is not shaded red by the resolution date, the market will resolve to “No”.
- For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
- If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
- Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by which date??
- Polymarket prices December 31 at 71% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by which date? resolve?
- Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by which date? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by which date? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Chasiv Yar, Donetsk Oblast, (48.589446° N, 37.831430° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).