PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 30, 2026, 1:33 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
December 31 · —
Loading selected book…
—
Stored reference
December 31 26%Leader of 5 outcomes
December 31 26%Market quality
37 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$62.9K
Liquidity
$2.3K
Low liquidityOpen interest
$5K
Bid / Ask
— / —
December 31Spread
—
Comments
9
7d Change
+12.5 pts
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleFeb 24, 26, 2:08 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
April 30Lost
March 31Lost
May 31Lost
September 30Lost
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
Top holders
Loading top holders
Market depth · December 31
Loading selected book…
—
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by which date?
PolymarketWill Ukraine re-enter Oleshky by which date?
PolymarketWill Ukraine re-enter Terny by which date?
PolymarketWill Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by which date?
PolymarketWill a significant man-made object (>100kg) re-enter Earth's atmosphere and cause property damage before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill David Cameron re-enter the House of Commons as an MP before 2036?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Uspenivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, (47.78301797308696° N, 36.386232040928824° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
- Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
- The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map.
- For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
- If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.