PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
December 31 41%Leader of 7 outcomes
Market quality
67 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$15.2K
Liquidity
$5.7K
Medium liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
142
7d Change
+10.5 pts
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Nov 4, 25, 8:42 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Vovchansk by the named outcome, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
- Vovchansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
- If the area is not shaded red by the named outcome, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
- If the territory of municipality is shaded light grey, and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Vovchanski Khutory" with a darker grey line.
- If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
- Once Russia captures Vovchansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.