KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Before Jan 1, 2027 · —
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Stored price
Before Jan 1, 2027 34%Leader of 3 outcomes
Before Jan 1, 2027 34%Market quality
65 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$6.2K
Open interest
$5.6K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
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Before Jan 1, 2027Spread
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Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Oct 19, 26, 4:30 PM UTCNov 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Before Jan 1, 2027
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
US imports Russian diesel by which date?
PolymarketEU lifts ban on Russian diesel imports by which date?
PolymarketWill OFAC end its Russian diesel import license?
KalshiHow high will US diesel prices get in 2026?
KalshiUS Average DIESEL Price Is $6.000 or more on Election Day 2026?
Manifold MarketsDiesel prices in Oct 2026
KalshiRules
If Russian-origin diesel fuel is imported into the United States after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The New York Timesthe Associated PressBloomberg NewsReutersAxiosPoliticoSemaforThe InformationThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalABCCBSCNNFox NewsMSNBCNBCBBCThe GuardianABC News AustraliaSouth China Morning PostCBC
- Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity. Russian-origin diesel fuel is diesel fuel produced in Russia. Diesel fuel refined in another country from Russian crude oil is not Russian-origin diesel fuel. Diesel fuel is imported into the United States when it is physically delivered to a U.S. port, or otherwise into U.S. territory, for commercial or government use within the United States. Whether the import is made under the October 9, 2026 agreement between the United States and Russia, General License 135 or any other authorization does not matter. The following do NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion: A purchase, contract, loading or voyage of Russian-origin diesel fuel to the United States, before it is actually delivered Diesel fuel carried as a vessel's own fuel Diesel fuel held in bond for re-export or passing through the United States in transit to another country An announcement, agreement or license permitting imports, before diesel fuel is actually delivered
Rules for each outcome
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If Russian-origin diesel fuel is imported into the United States after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Dec 1, 2026
- If Russian-origin diesel fuel is imported into the United States after Issuance and before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Nov 1, 2026
- If Russian-origin diesel fuel is imported into the United States after Issuance and before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.