PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
December 31 16%-1.0pt
Market quality
59.04146401350513 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$250.7
Liquidity
$12.7K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
15.0% / 17.0%
Spread
2.0 pt
Moderate spread7d Change
+0.5%
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Feb 19, 26, 8:42 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
December 3116%
Compare venues· December 31
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketThis pageBest overall | Medium | 16% | — | $250.7 | $12.7K | 8 minutes ago | |
 Manifold Markets82% match · verified | — | 73% | — | — | — | 9 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Manifold Markets
Will Russia capture Lyman in 2026?
5mo
73.4%
26.6%
Community forecast10 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Lyman, Donetsk Oblast, (48.990595° N, 37.805666° E) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Lyman will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
- If the area is not shaded red by the resolution date, the market will resolve to “No”.
- For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
- If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
- Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$6.3k99.9%POLYMARKETNonoreasapa26d ago
POLYMARKETNonoreasapa26d agoVolume trend
$251Jul 226d of dataJul 27
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Lyman, Donetsk Oblast, (48.990595° N, 37.805666° E) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Lyman will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
- If the area is not shaded red by the resolution date, the market will resolve to “No”.
- For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
- If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
- Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.