KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
5 or more 31%Market line of 3 lines
5 or more 31%Market quality
25 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$23
Open interest
$23
Low open interestSpread
27.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Oct 5, 26, 12:30 AM UTCNov 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the Irkutsk Anti-Plague institute incident turn into an outbreak?
Manifold MarketsMore than 1000 cases of Irkutsk Plague?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia name the pathogen in the Irkutsk pneumonia case in Oct 2026?
KalshiConfirmed pneumonic plague case in Russia by which date?
PolymarketWill Russia control Irkutsk on Jan 1st 2032?
Manifold MarketsNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
PolymarketRules
If the total number of human plague cases reported in Irkutsk Oblast during 2026 is at least 5, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Rospotrebnadzor
- Cases are determined at 10:00 AM ET on the Expiration Date (November 8). Only cases that Rospotrebnadzor, Russia's federal public health agency, confirms after Issuance and before November 1, 2026 count. Cases newly reported during the window between November 1 and Expiration do not count, even if they are backdated to the specified time period. A case is a human infection with Yersinia pestis (plague in any form) in Irkutsk Oblast, including a posthumous confirmation, and each infected person counts once. Suspected cases, and illness described as pneumonia of undetermined etiology, do not count.
Rules for each outcome
- 5 or more
- If the total number of human plague cases reported in Irkutsk Oblast during 2026 is at least 5, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 2 or more
- If the total number of human plague cases reported in Irkutsk Oblast during 2026 is at least 2, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 1 or more
- If the total number of human plague cases reported in Irkutsk Oblast during 2026 is at least 1, then the market resolves to Yes.