Will the Irkutsk Anti-Plague institute incident turn into an outbreak?
Russia / UkraineOne-OffHealth & Medicine1moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 89.6%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Oct 4, 26, 1:24 PM UTCDec 1, 26, 1:16 PM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
Allegedly, a worker at the Irkutsk Anti-Plague Institute was exposed to plague.
- This resolves YES if a reliable western source claims that at least 100 people were infected as a result of this incident by the end of 2026.
- This resolves YES even if the infection turns out to not actually be plague.