Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2031?
Russia / UkraineOne-OffSpaceScienceChina5y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 7:56 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
No 85.2%
No 85.2%Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingDec 23, 23, 6:36 PM UTCJan 1, 32, 10:59 PM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if, by December 31, 2031, evidence of extraterrestrial life is presented, fulfilling these criteria:
- Publication in a Recognized Scientific Journal: The evidence must be detailed in a peer-reviewed article in a high-impact scientific journal of significant academic standing.
- Fields pertinent to this evidence include astronomy and astrobiology, among others.
- Journals like 'Nature' and 'Science' are exemplary, but other journals of comparable status are also acceptable.
- Confirmation by Space Exploration Authorities: The evidence must be independently confirmed or endorsed by at least two reputable space exploration agencies or governmental bodies.
- These may include agencies such as NASA (United States), ESA (European Space Agency), Roscosmos (Russia), CNSA (China National Space Administration), or ISRO (Indian Space Research Organisation).
