Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2028?
Russia / UkraineOne-OffChinaSpaceScience2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 90.6%
Forecasters
37
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleDec 23, 23, 6:26 PM UTCJan 1, 29, 10:59 PM UTC
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This market will resolve to 'Yes' if, by December 31, 2028, evidence of extraterrestrial life is presented, meeting the following criteria:
- Publication in a Recognized Scientific Journal: The evidence must be detailed in at least one peer-reviewed publication in a high-impact scientific journal with significant academic reputation.
- Relevant fields include astronomy, astrobiology, or related scientific disciplines.
- Journals like 'Nature' and 'Science' are ideal examples, but other journals of similar standing are also acceptable.
- Confirmation by Space Exploration Authorities: The evidence must be independently confirmed or endorsed by at least two reputable space exploration agencies or governmental bodies.
- Agencies that could fulfill this role include, but are not limited to, NASA (United States), ESA (European Space Agency), Roscosmos (Russia), CNSA (China National Space Administration), or ISRO (Indian Space Research Organisation).