Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2033?
Russia / UkraineOne-OffSpaceChina7yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 84.1%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleDec 23, 23, 7:34 PM UTCJan 1, 34, 10:59 PM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if, by December 31, 2033, evidence of extraterrestrial life is presented, adhering to the following criteria:
- Publication in a Recognized Scientific Journal: The evidence must be documented in at least one peer-reviewed article in a high-impact scientific journal of notable academic standing.
- Relevant fields include astronomy, astrobiology, or similar scientific disciplines.
- Journals such as 'Nature' and 'Science' are prime examples, but other journals of similar repute are also acceptable.
- Confirmation by Space Exploration Authorities: The evidence must be independently confirmed or endorsed by at least two reputable space exploration agencies or government bodies.
- Agencies that qualify include, but are not limited to, NASA (United States), ESA (European Space Agency), Roscosmos (Russia), CNSA (China National Space Administration), or ISRO (Indian Space Research Organisation).
